"More children, same number of schools"
Přetlak na pražských středních školách se totiž každoročně zhoršuje. Z pohledu celorepublikových dat by se mohlo zdát, že nedostatek míst je problémem aktuálních pěti ročníků. Pokud se ale zaměříme na Prahu, kde je problém nejpalčivější, zjistíme, že zde není možné dostupná data aplikovat, a to z několika důvodů. Obecná prognóza studentů hlásících se na střední školy v Praze není příliš optimistická. Pražské školy jsou afektovány jednak silnými ročníky, které neslábnou, a zároveň vzrůstajícím přílivem studentů z dalších okresů napříč celou republikou – nejvýznamnější podíl má ale Praha-západ, Praha-východ, Mělník, Beroun, Benešov a Kolín.
Podle dat Cermatu je kapacita středních škol v Praze 20 436 studentů, uchazečů je ale lehce přes 25 000. Pokud uvažujeme standardních 8 tříd po 30 studentech pro každou školu, výsledkem je alarmující fakt, že v celé Praze aktuálně chybí více než dvě desítky středních škol.
DEMOGRAPHY SPEAKS CLEARLY
At the same time, the fact that more and more people are moving to towns around Prague plays a role in demographic developments in key areas. If we take into account not only demographic developments but also population migration, we find that Prague is facing a much bigger problem than is apparent at first glance.
The topic of high-quality and accessible education is frequently and urgently discussed in public debates, but school places are becoming scarce and anxiety is growing. Many families find themselves in a state of uncertainty, and the situation is becoming untenable.
The trend over the last ten years is clear. The number of people in cities, and therefore 15-year-olds applying to secondary schools in Prague, is constantly growing. Demographically, we are currently at the peak, but if the increase due to migration to larger cities remains the same as in the last ten years, the population of 15-year-olds in Prague and the surrounding districts will increase by 3.7% annually, as is evident from the analysis of demographic data (Pic. 1). This problem cannot be ignored. Rather than resignation and postponement of the issue, the result of data analysis should be increased attention and the resulting clear fact – the need to increase the capacity of secondary schools.
CRISIS SPARKS CREATIVITY
It could be argued that despite the increase in urban populations, fewer children have been born in recent years. However, the pull of large cities and the resulting problem of school capacity still persists, even though we do not know how dramatic its development may be.
From this uncertain perspective, the process of planning and subsequently building schools may seem complicated and lengthy, which is why alternative solutions to this crisis need to be found.
There should be general agreement that new secondary schools are needed. At the same time, however, this could be a mission for the next 12 years. That is how long this issue will remain with us if we do nothing about it. At the same time, we have been facing the lowest birth rate ever in the last two years. If the influx of people into cities remains the same, even that will not save us. However, it may happen that the pace of migration to cities will slow down and secondary schools will need to be reduced in 15–20 years. Answers can be found in a simplified construction process using various modular and building block systems, which allow for relatively high speed and efficiency. It is also important to consider the possibility that demand for school places will fall so much that there will suddenly be a surplus. In this case, it is essential to consider the future use of the school building and therefore to plan and design it in advance so that it can be converted for another function if necessary.
CITY SHOULD ACT
Private education projects are responding to some extent to the shortage of places in secondary schools. These projects are located on private land and their number is constantly growing. However, they cannot satisfy the current demand and, most importantly, they are not a systemic solution. This should be provided by the public administration, i.e. the municipal authority in cooperation with the city districts.
Prague has a large amount of land that is unused or used inefficiently, either due to a lack of attention to this issue or due to the absence of specific data. Unlike private property, however, there is enormous potential here for this type of public interest, which should undoubtedly be the provision of accessible education and, therefore, the creation of new schools.
DATA AS A PART OF URBAN DESIGN
The plan to build a secondary school, regardless of the method, entails a number of specific requirements. It is necessary to find a suitable plot of land within the city with sufficient space to accommodate not only the school itself, but also other functions such as outdoor sports facilities and the like. Furthermore, it is necessary to take into account the location of the site, its transport accessibility, and the surrounding civic amenities. Each plot of land has its own limitations, such as the functional areas defined in the zoning plan, protection zones, or the connection of the land to transport and technical infrastructure. However, a standard map or zoning plan only provides certain information.
SOLUTION? RACIONALITY AND BRAVERY
Even this relatively complex problem can be solved if the right tools are available. UPSTRUCTURE has long been dedicated to linking urban planning with data analytics. Using an advanced territorial analysis system, it can monitor how a city responds to social and demographic changes while providing developers, urban planners, and politicians with key information in one place. In this case, it can identify suitable land for the construction of new schools.
This tool works on the principle of multi-criteria analysis, which is a method that allows you to evaluate and compare different location options based on multiple selected criteria simultaneously. At the beginning, the objectives and individual criteria are defined, such as accessibility, territorial limits, terrain morphology, costs, transport, and so on. The selected criteria are assigned a priority and then their combination is evaluated.
In practice, the method for identifying suitable locations begins with a zoning plan that defines areas where schools can be built. This is followed by an intersection of these areas with a property rights map (Picture 2). The next step in the analysis is to compare public transport accessibility—train, metro, bus, and tram—within the relevant walking distances (Picture 3).
The result is clear data and its map display – an overview of specific locations with suitable land (Picture 6) that are most suitable for the given purpose, and the exact number. This makes it easy to see that 51 schools could be built in Prague, 30 on private land and 21 on municipal and state land. Construction is therefore not just a vision, but a real possibility. And it could happen almost immediately, provided there is the political will and willingness to act.
"For us as architects, land analyses are a normal part of planning and design. Thanks to the hard data we can analyze, we are able to better understand various problems and offer solutions. One of these is the answer to the question of whether suitable land for schools in Prague really exists and where schools can be built. We are presenting concrete results that can be built upon," explains Ing. arch. František Bosák. "The aim of the analysis is to show that a solution exists! We are giving the city leadership tools and information that they can use immediately," add architects Pavel Paseka and Martin Žatečka. "Now it's up to the city."
